The Hive Sports

By Connor Dee

LAS VEGAS, Nevada -The regular season is over and Championship Week has arrived. Selection Sunday is just four days away. A handful of teams have already punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament, but for most of the nation’s Division 1 schools, these four days can make or break a season. A conference tournament victory, and you are guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance. Anything short of that can cost you the opportunity of a lifetime.

The Utah Valley Wolverines have a chance to do something special. A team that was picked to finish seventh in the Preseason Coaches Poll, went one to win the conference regular season title, and now has a legitimate chance of advancing to their first-ever NCAA Tournament. Finishing the season 24-7 and 15-3 in conference play, the Wolverines were dominant all year, but Championship Week brings a whole new element to the table: maximum intensity and a willingness to win at all costs.

This season the Western Athletic Conference implemented a new way of seeding the conference tournament. Instead of seeds being determined by your position at the end of the regular season, (i.e. the conference champion would be the one seed in the conference tournament) the WAC agreed that seeding will be based on advanced analytics. Simply put it means that wins against stronger opponents say ranked in the top 50, matter a lot more than wins against the top 300. On the other hand, losses against strong opponents count less against you than losses against substandard teams. `

The WAC implemented this new conference seeding strategy in response to COVID-19. With the possibility of future games being canceled, the system allows for the seeding of the conference tournament to be based on the quality of your wins and losses, not the amount. In theory, it is smart, considering that we never know what the future holds. But in its inaugural year, it is already showing that it can shake up the conference tournament bracket for better or for worse. In Utah Valley’s case, it’s worse.

The Wolverines drew the two seeds in the conference tournament even though they topped Sam Houston by a game in the regular season. The Bearkats, through their strength in advanced analytics, drew the top of the bracket and the much-desired one seed. If it had been Utah Valley as the one, their path to the conference finals would have been a much easier one and a probably more desirable one.

Utah Valley will face Tarleton State in the second round tomorrow at 7 PM MT. The Wolverines only faced the Texans once this year and it amounted to one of their three regular season conference losses in a lackluster performance. Although Tarleton State finished just 9-9 in conference play, they have an edge on Utah Valley that not many teams can say they have.

If the Wolverines manage to get through the Tarleton Texans they will likely face another formidable opponent: The Southern Utah Thunderbirds. The in-state rivals split the season series this year with both teams winning on their home floor. This means that out of the three teams that beat Utah Valley in the conference regular season, they will have to face two of them just to get to the finals.

If the conference tournament finals is the chosen path for the Wolverines it’s reasonable to think that they could face three different opponents. Sam Houston, Seattle U, and Grand Canyon all have the potential to reach the finals. Only one of those three, Seattle U, has beaten Utah Valley in the regular season. It’s remarkable to think that Utah Valley’s conference finals game if they get there, could be their easiest of the tournament.

But miracles have happened before and they can happen again, that’s what March is all about. The eight-seed California Baptist could be punching its ticket to the NCAA Tournament late this Saturday Night. But at +170 odds, just behind Sam Houston (+120), the Utah Valley Wolverines have as good a chance as anyone to keep on dancing in March. Play to your strengths, and tune out the distractions, your team and your destiny depend on it!