The new College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings were released Tuesday, showing little movement within the top 12. Texas Tech climbed to No. 6 after another strong week, while BYU slid five spots to No. 12. Utah, idle on a bye, held firm at No. 13.
With automatic bids reserved for both the ACC and the Group of Five — regardless of whether the ACC champion finishes in the top 12 — both BYU and Utah likely need to crack the top 10 to have a realistic shot at a playoff berth. Even so, the in-state rivals remain firmly in the postseason conversation heading into the final three weeks of the regular season.
BYU’s Playoff Path: Three Scenarios for the Cougars
BYU is currently sitting at No. 12, the second team out. Luckily for the Cougars, there are still three weeks left in the regular season — and plenty of time for chaos to unfold. BYU still has everything to play for, but one misstep could end its playoff hopes for good.
The most likely scenarios I see are as follows:
Scenario 1: The Best-Case Path
This week gives BYU its best chance to climb — if a few things break their way. The Cougars need a convincing win against TCU to convince the committee to move them up. Other teams in the top 12 also need to lose, specifically the No. 10 Texas Longhorns (7–2), who head to Athens to face the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs, and the No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (7–2), who travel to Tuscaloosa to face the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide.
If BYU wins and both Texas and Oklahoma lose this week — and the committee decides against including a three-loss SEC team in the top 12 — the Cougars could jump two spots to No. 10. From there, all BYU would need to do is win out and either win or keep it close in the Big 12 Championship Game against projected opponent No. 5 Texas Tech.
Scenario 2: A Narrow Window
If BYU wins but Texas and Oklahoma don’t both lose, the Cougars would still need to win out and hope that, in the following weeks, at least two teams from No. 9 Notre Dame, No. 10 Texas, or No. 11 Oklahoma lose. That would give BYU a path to move into the top 10 — and, in turn, secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Scenario 3: The Hard Way
If none of those teams lose, BYU’s only option would be to win out and capture the Big 12 title to have any realistic shot at the playoff. It’s the toughest road, but not impossible — especially with how unpredictable November football tends to be.
Utah’s Playoff Path – What Has to Happen for the Utes to Stay Alive
Utah is currently sitting right behind BYU at No. 13, on the outside looking in for the College Football Playoff. The Utes need to win out — and hope for plenty of chaos in the top 12 — to have a realistic shot at making it.
Their best path forward is to take care of business the rest of the way and hope that at least three of the four teams ahead of them — Notre Dame, Texas, Oklahoma, and BYU — take losses over the next few weeks to move into the top 10.
The Hive Sports 
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